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Open-source intelligence (OSINT) offers a solution to those operating within the political risk insurance industry by providing real-time insights through satellite imagery, social media, and other publicly available data. Insurers can use OSINT to verify claims, assess damage in inaccessible regions, and detect emerging risks.
This article explores how OSINT enhances political risk assessment, offering practical examples of its application in verifying claims, identifying threats, and making informed decisions
In an era of heightened geopolitical instability, accurately assessing political risk has become an increasingly complex challenge for the insurance industry. Traditionally, insurers have relied on a combination of historical data, economic forecasting, and human source intelligence (HUMINT). While these tools remain valuable, they struggle to keep pace with today’s fast-moving and often unpredictable political landscape. As volatility rises and traditional methods fall short, insurers must ask: how can they adapt to operate effectively in the face of shifting political realities?
Insurers now have the option of harnessing the power of the internet using open-source intelligence (OSINT). OSINT provides insurers with the ability to verify claims and assess damage in areas that are inaccessible by traditional sources.
Unlike natural disasters, which can be modelled with relative precision, political crises are driven by human behaviour, social movements, and governmental decisions. OSINT – which gathers and analyses publicly available information from a diverse array of sources – provides insurers with the ability to detect emerging risks before they materialise, or helps them understand damage claims and accurately map the sequence of events that led up to an incident.
One of the most powerful applications of OSINT in political risk insurance lies in the use of geospatial intelligence (GEOSINT), including the use of satellite imagery. Using satellite imagery, OSINT practitioners can track both current and historical developments in places that human source intelligence cannot reach. This can be done by analysing patterns of military movement, infrastructure damage such as fires, or the size and spread of protests. Effective use of satellite imagery can make all the difference in understanding the circumstances of a claim and provide insights that even people on the ground may miss.
Social media platforms add a layer of context to the geospatial data, allowing insurers to understand local sentiment and planned events leading up to an incident.
In politically unstable regions, official narratives are often affected by political biases and disinformation. Social media platforms, such as X and Telegram, provide immediate insights into shifting public sentiment and provide traces of how social and political movements developed over time. By efficiently and accurately searching online platforms, practitioners can identify the early warning signs of unrest and map out the current state of conflict or the extent of political violence.
Social media can also be a great resource when working in regions where traditional media is censored. OSINT tools can identify valuable intelligence from encrypted messaging platforms, local forums, or citizen journalism. In places where journalism is highly regulated or the media infrastructure cannot cover events accurately, social media users become surrogate news reporters.
OSINT can also be used when verifying business interruption claims for political risk insurers. Such claims often hinge on whether a disruption is attributable to political instability; Insurers can leverage OSINT tools to cross-reference claims against their sources, analysing everything from news reports to institutional data.
The practical implications of OSINT for insurers are numerous and can be applied to various business contexts. For example, an international insurer covering retail chains in South America, a region experiencing a surge in anti-government protests, could benefit from the use of satellite imagery and social media analytics, allowing them to detect potential threats to their clients’ assets ahead of time. This intelligence could allow a firm to adjust coverage terms or advise clients on security measures, helping to protect assets from looting or property damage.
In another example, a multinational insurer may receive a business interruption claim from a manufacturing firm, citing political instability as the reason for factory closures. In this example, OSINT tools can draw on local news sources and employee social media posts, revealing that the true cause of the shutdown was an internal labour dispute unrelated to government action.
As the world’s future grows more unpredictable, fuelled by shifting geopolitical alliances, the integration of OSINT into Political Risk claims assessments will become crucial. The rise of artificial intelligence will further enhance OSINT practitioners’ capabilities, coupled with human insights and the latest investigation tools. Investing in OSINT-driven decision-making will help insurers mitigate losses and navigate uncertainty with confidence.
By Muhammad Shuwekh